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2020 was once no longer supposed to be a excellent year for House Republicans. The polls pointed to a Democratic-leaning electoral atmosphere, Democratic candidates had been outraising Republicans in best seats, and the GOP needed to protect a bunch of open seats that Republican incumbents had abandoned.

Yet, opposite to expectancies, together with their own, Republicans controlled to gain seats even as the Democrats held onto their majority. Votes are still being counted, but in response to contests projected by way of ABC News, Republicans have netted six seats up to now, they usually might still flip a couple of extra.

But top-line numbers about seats gained and lost can only let us know so much. Let's look at one of the primary takeaways from the 2020 House elections.

Where the rest of the 2020 races stand | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Republicans outperformed expectancies

Coming into the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight's forecast best gave Republicans a couple of 1 in 6 shot of selecting up six or extra seats, and if the GOP features more as-yet-uncalled seats in the coming days, the party's haul could grow to be even more not likely.

It's now not simply the flipped seats which are impressive, despite the fact that. Not a unmarried Republican incumbent has lost in the races where we all know the results thus far. Among the outstanding contests, handiest California Rep. Mike Garcia, who gained a May particular election, seems to be at risk of dropping.

[Related: The Polls Weren't Great. But That's Pretty Normal.]

Open-seat races have additionally been friendly to Republicans, despite the large number of GOP incumbents who retired or left workplace ahead of the 2020 election. The GOP needed to protect 35 open seats compared to the Democrats' 13, but of the 33 Republican-held open seats projected up to now, handiest 3 have long past for the Democrats. And two of the ones Democratic wins have been in North Carolina seats that the GOP had written off after a court-ordered redistricting made the districts heavily Democratic.

GOP girls made large good points

While the vast majority of the Republican caucus will still be males come 2021, there will probably be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So some distance, it looks as if no less than 26 GOP girls will be in the House next 12 months, surpassing the document of 25 from the 109th Congress. That's thanks in part to the record collection of non-incumbent Republican ladies — 15 — who've won House contests. And it's also as a result of how smartly Republican women did in tight races. The desk under shows the Republican ladies who ran in Democratic-held House districts that had been no less than potentially aggressive,

This excludes races where the GOP had a minimum of a ninety nine p.c likelihood of successful or lower than a 1 % probability of profitable.

">1 in line with FiveThirtyEight's forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have received. GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats

Republican ladies running for doubtlessly competitive Democratic-held House seats and the standing of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11

District Candidate Current Margin Projected GOP flip MN-07 Michelle Fischbach R+13.2 ✓ ✓ NM-02 Yvette Herrell R+7.8 ✓ ✓ OK-05 Stephanie Bice R+4.1 ✓ ✓ FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar R+2.7 ✓ ✓ IA-01 Ashley Hinson R+2.6 ✓ ✓ CA-48 Michelle Steel R+2.0 ✓ ✓ SC-01 Nancy Mace R+1.3 ✓ ✓ NY-11 Nicole Malliotakis R+15.8 NY-22 Claudia Tenney R+11.0 CA-39 Young Kim R+1.3 IA-02 Mariannette Miller-Meeks 0 NY-18 Chele Farley D+3.0 TX-15 Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez D+2.9 ✓ AZ-01 Tiffany Shedd D+3.4 ✓ PA-07 Lisa Scheller D+3.7 ✓ IL-17 Esther Joy King D+3.8 ✓ TX-32 Genevieve Collins D+6.0 ✓ FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna D+6.1 ✓ IL-06 Jeanne Ives D+6.6 ✓ OR-05 Amy Ryan Courser D+6.7 ✓ OH-13 Christina Hagan D+7.5 ✓ NC-01 Sandy Smith D+8.3 ✓ GA-06 Karen Handel D+9.2 ✓ KS-03 Amanda Adkins D+9.7 ✓ NJ-11 Rosemary Becchi D+9.8 ✓ CA-03 Tamika Hamilton D+10.9 ✓ PA-04 Kathy Barnette D+18.8 ✓ CA-36 Erin Cruz D+22.1 ✓

Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected provided that the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races wherein the Republican candidate has both a lower than 1 in A hundred likelihood or greater than 99 in 100 probability of winning.

Source: ABC News

It's no longer all bad information for Democrats

While it was surely a good night for Republicans, Democrats nonetheless held onto many of the seats they won in 2018 and can proceed to be the majority celebration within the House. That's partly because they retained lots of the suburban districts they picked up in 2018.

Of the 233 seats that Democrats held getting into the election,

Including a vacant seat in Georgia's fifth Congressional District in the past held by means of a Democrat.

">2 186 of them had been in districts that have been predominantly or in part suburban in nature, according to density categorizations via Bloomberg's CityLab. (This figure excludes North Carolina as a result of TownLab has no longer updated its density data to account for North Carolina's court-ordered redistricting in 2019.) Thus some distance, Democrats have misplaced seven of those seats, however they captured one GOP-held suburban seat around Atlanta. And thanks to redistricting, they've also gained two formerly Republican seats around Greensboro and Raleigh in North Carolina, which mirror the birthday party's power in more populous areas. (ABC News hasn't projected a winner but in 11 suburban races — 8 Democratic-held districts and three Republican-held districts.)

Because of their relative luck in the suburbs, Democrats saved many seats in puts President Trump won in 2016. Coming into the election, Democrats held 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, and they'd've misplaced their majority if they'd lost greater than part of them (assuming they didn't offset the losses by gaining seats in different places). But they've won 18 of them thus far and collected one from the GOP (Georgia's 7th Congressional District). In fact, more than half of Republicans' gains have are available seats representing puts that Trump won by a horny sizable margin in 2016. We'll have to attend just a little prior to knowledge can let us know how congressional districts voted in 2020,

So some distance we now have data via county, however we don't have a complete image of votes through district.

">3 but for now it seems many Republican beneficial properties have been made by way of picking off the lowest-hanging fruit.

Republicans are well situated to take the House in 2022

Although we don't yet know the winners of some House races, we will already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and notice a moderately easy trail for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections traditionally pass well for the birthday celebration that's now not in the White House, and the out-of-power celebration is particularly more likely to do neatly within the House, since each and every seat is up for election (the Senate is a extra sophisticated story).

Since the top of World War II, the presidential party has misplaced a median of 27 House seats in midterm elections, because the chart underneath presentations. No matter how many seats Democrats finally end up with after 2020's election — at this level, they will almost certainly finally end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.

The contemporary history of midterms in a Democratic president's first term turns out particularly promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton's election in 1992, Democrats misplaced greater than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama received the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.

If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this 12 months, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will most certainly wish to win fewer than 10 seats to realize a slim majority in 2022.

[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren't That Bad]

On peak of this, Republicans may just rather well have the benefit of the new district strains that will probably be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to completely keep watch over redistricting for approximately two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will most effective hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remainder seats are in states with divided governments or the place redistricting is finished via a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the birthday party draw favorable maps that could assist the GOP win more seats than we might in a different way be expecting.

Biden is set to be president. What comes next? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

CORRECTION (Feb. 18, 2021, 2:Fifty two p.m.): The chart on this article firstly confirmed Democrats dropping four House seats in the 1998 midterms; they in truth gained 4 seats.

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